HONG KONG, 11 Dec 2019. Pengyuan International has released a credit research report regarding China's property market. Please click here or visit Pengyuan International's website https://www.pyrating.com/CreditResearch to access the full report.

2019年12月11日,中国香港。鹏元国际发布了一份关于中国房地产行业的信用研究报告。如欲获取完整报告(英文),敬请点击此处或访问鹏元国际网站https://www.pyrating.com/CreditResearch


Credit differentiation to expand 

信用分化将扩大


China’s property sales slowed slightly in 2019, in line with our previous predictions but beating the market expectation. We expect the slowdown to continue in 2020. In our recent sovereign review on China, we forecast M2 to grow at its current pace of 8% in 2020. For 2020, we expect the Chinese government to ease its monetary policy while keeping its controls on the property sector. In 2019, the sector underwent structural changes which will widen the differentiation in credit profiles among property developers.

2019年中国房地产销售略有放缓,符合我们先前的预测但好于市场预期。我们预期2020年房地产销售增速将继续放缓。我们在最近的主权评级年审中预测2020年广义货币(M2)将以当前8%的速度继续增长。 我们预计中国政府在2020年将略有放松货币政策,但会对房地产行业持续调控。2019年地产行业发生了结构性变化,这些变化将扩大房地产商之间的信用差异。


Funding structure changed, challenging small players: The growth rate of property funding in China remained the same in 2019 as in 2018, but the funding structure changed in 2019, with new bank loans replaced by lower seniority financing sources such as bonds, trust funds or even equity. The lower seniority financing sources are likely to result in shorter tenor and more market-driven financing for developers, which will create difficulties for the smaller players in accessing funding. This is likely to strain the liquidity of the smaller developers and thus widen the credit differentiation among developers. We project the funding growth rate for Chinese developers to remain at 7% in 2020, driven by solid growth of property sales.

房地产开发资金来源结构改变,对小型开发商融资构成挑战:虽然2019年中国房地产开发资金来源增速维持在2018年水平,但资金来源结构发生了变化。在2019年的房地产开发资金来源中,新增国内银行贷款收紧,取而代之的是债券、信托基金甚至股票等融资方式。这些融资方式更加以市场需求为导向,并且很可能期限更短。这给资质较弱的小型开发商融资带来困难,进而可能使小型开发商的流动性承压,从而加大各开发商之间的信用差异。我们预测,在房地产销售强劲增长的推动下,2020年房地产开发资金来源将保持7%的增速。

 

Land replenishment more through M&A: Despite a slowdown recently, land purchases in China increased by 19% in the first ten months of 2019, slower than the 57% increase in 2018. More land acquisitions were conducted through mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in 2019 compared to the past few years. As a result, land replenishment has increased while primary land acquisition slowed down in 2019. Land acquired through M&A tends to have longer cash cycles, despite having higher value and easier financing. We expect land replenishment to slow down while primary land acquisitions will pick up in 2020, hence the primary land acquisitions will yield a higher contribution in 2020 than in 2019. Over the mid-to-long term, we expect land replenishment to slow down together with sales. Instead of expanding their landbank, some developers will deleverage, diversify their business outside property or increase dividend payouts.

更多地通过收并购进行土地补充:土地购置费增速从2018年的57%放缓到2019年前十个月的19%20182019年开发商比以往更多地通过收并购进行土地补充。这反应在土地购置费和土地成交价款之间逐年扩大的差距。2019年土地购置费维持增长而一级土地购置下跌。虽然通过收并购可以低价获取项目且融资灵活,但资金周转期有时候会更长。我们预期2020年开发商拿地将放缓而一级土地购置回暖,换言之2020年一级土地购置在拿地中所占比例将高于2019年。中长期看来,我们预期开发商拿地将随着商品房销售的放缓而放缓。放缓拿地之后,有些开发商将用在手现金去杠杆、布局非房地产方向多元化发展,以及增加派息。


Differences in land banking strategy will widen credit differences: We believe the overall working capital requirements has increased for the Chinese property sector and expect it to stay high with the property inventory continuing to increase in 2020. As a result, the leverage will increase while liquidity conditions will remain tight. Against such a backdrop, Chinese developers’ credit profiles will diverge. We have observed that most large players didn’t expand their land and contracted sales aggressively in 2019, reversing from the previous year’s trend. These developers with strong sales and prudent expansion strategies managed to deleverage. On the other hand, some mid-to-small players have been aggressively pursuing scale and market share through rapid land bank expansion. For these developers, we expect to see deterioration in their credit profiles in the coming years. 

不同土地储备战略将加大信用差异:我们认为,2020年中国房地产行业的总体营运资本需求有所提高,并且随着房地产库存持续增加,预计这一资本需求仍将维持高位。 有鉴于此,杠杆将上升,同时流动性持续紧张。在这种情况下,中国开发商的信用状况将出现差异。我们注意到,与去年相反,2019年很多大型房地产开发商并未激进地扩充其土地储备并控制开盘速度。这些开发商得益于自身强劲的销售执行力和谨慎扩张在2019年完成去杠杆。另一方面,一些中小型房地产商通过快速扩张土地储备,积极追求规模效应和市场份额。对于这一类开发商,我们预期未来几年其信用状况将恶化。


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注:本文译自英文版新闻稿。若有分歧, 以英文版为准。


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